The race for the autonomous car is on, and how it will shake
out is anyone's guess. The future could see fleets of automated taxis, people
could subscribe to car companies and use an app to call up their autonomous
pods, or buyers could choose to drive on their own, then flip a switch and let
the car do the work.
Then again, all of these scenarios could play out, and
Mercedes-Benz is taking a two-pronged approach to autonomous cars in the near
future, with another approach planned for later.
Motor Authority was recently part of a round-table
interview with Mercedes-Benz research and development chief Ola Källenius, who
shed some light on the automaker's plans for the autonomous car.
Before we get into Källenius' remarks, a little primer on
the levels of autonomy is in order. Levels 0 and 1 have been surpassed, so they
aren't important. Level 2 cars are on the road today. A Level 2 car can take
control of the car in limited situations, but the driver must be at the ready
constantly to back up the system should it fail or when the system can't handle
a change in the situation.
A Level 3 car can handle all driving operations in limited
situations, but it still needs a driver to take over control, after ample
warning, outside of these limited situations. Audi has said the
next
A8 will offer Level 3 autonomy. A Level 4 car can drive itself at all times
but not in all conditions. It may have driver controls for a human to take
over, but they are not necessary.
A Level 5 car drives itself at all times in all conditions,
including bad weather and on dirt roads. It has no need for driver controls.
Mercedes is working on Level 3 and Level 4/5 cars at the
same time.
S-Class to go Level 3
The
2018
Mercedes-Benz S-Class, and the E-Class for that matter, both qualify as
Level 2 autonomous cars. Källenius calls the S-Class Level 2 plus, and says
"if we would take the inhibitors out, then it could do Level 3 in many,
many, many driving situations."
Källenius gave his definition for a Level 3 car: "You
can, in general terms say that the Level 3 is a system by which you can let the
car drive and you can look the other way and you are not responsible for a
certain use-case but not all the time. That technology, we believe, will come
and we are working on it."
However, regulations the world over are standing in the way
of developing both Level 3 and Level 4/5 cars. "The regulatory environment
is still very heterogeneous both on Level 3 and Level 4 and Level 5. At the
moment, we are in discussions with authorities literally around the world to
nail that down and try to create as a homogeneous set of requirements as
possible because, for consistency reasons and also engineering reasons, the
closer those regulatory frameworks are, the better," Källenius explained.
Once the regulatory environment is clear, Mercedes needs to
further develop the technology and make it safe. "You would have to add
some more on the sensing side and you would also have to add what we think
would be the only responsible way of doing it, redundant braking and redundant
steering," Källenius said. "The sensing technologies of the future is
a blend of cameras, lidars, and radars. Those three layers of sensing basically
replaces the eyes and the ears of the human being. It needs to be able to see
and hear whatever the human being sees and hears," he noted.
Once it feels the technology is up to its high standards,
Mercedes will release a Level 3 S-Class. "We are working intensely on that
and that is not that far away," Källenius said optimistically.
Full autonomy replaces drivers with robot taxis
Källenius calls the Level 4/5 car a robot car that drives
itself. He says Mercedes is concentrating on the taxi market for this type of
car simply due to cost. The problem is drivers get replaced by the cars
themselves.
"It is phenomenally expensive to do this and the number
of sensors you have to put on the car, the computing part and so on, is in tens
of thousands of dollars once you get it into production. Where do you have a
business case for something like that? You have it in a robot taxi scenario,
where you can take a city or part of a city and say, 'OK, I am going to put
100, 200, 300, 1000, whatever robot taxis into this area,' because the
amortization comes through not paying the driver. If you think about what the
driver earns per year, depending on how many hours that car is in operation,
that easily get into the tens of thousands of dollars, so you can have a very
quick amortization on a Level 4 or Level 5," he explained.
What are the barriers to Level 4/5 technology? Oddly,
Källenius said it's not the infrastructure. "Since you cannot expect the
whole world to equip itself with infrastructure to support the first generation
of autonomous cars, our approach is the car has to do it on its own. One thing,
though, which is absolutely crucial is that you need an HD map, a
high-definition map," he said.
Mercedes,
along with BMW and Audi acquired Nokia's HERE mapping company in 2015.
Källenius says that entity is developing HD maps right now.
The timing for Level 4/5? Källenius says 2020-2025 to start,
and that Mercedes will grow it through its own mobility services arm car2go or
through a mobility services partner.
A third prong and an advantage
Further down the road, Källenius sees a third prong:
"You will then have robot taxis in cities and you will have a
sophisticated Level 3 system that could be a highway pilot or other use-cases
in parallel. Eventually, technologically, these come together...at the point
where, we, through economies of scaling and clever engineering, have brought
the cost down to a point where it can be an attractive option."
How does that play out? According to Källenius, when you go
buy your new S-class, or perhaps your high-end E-Class, you will be able to
choose a computer-driver option.
Källenius feels Mercedes-Benz is in a unique position to
have success with autonomous cars. "We are working on all three
[strategies]. We think that an advantage for Mercedes is that through quick
proliferation through our different models, on the Level 2 plus and the Level
3, we very quickly get into the tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands,
maybe even millions [of autonomous vehicles]. Whereas many other brands that
don't have the position or pricing segment cannot get there as quickly. So we
will push both strands at the same time. That is our strategy."
source: http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1111847_mercedes-outlines-3-pronged-approach-to-self-driving-cars/page-2
by Kirk Bell
http://www.boscheuropean.com
